FACT: the world is becoming more carbon-efficient
THE NUMBERS: Growth from 2005 to 2024 –
- World GDP: 84%
- World primary energy use: 33%
- CO2 emissions: 32%
WHAT THEY MEAN:
As the UN delegates prepare for the “COP-30” meeting in Belem, the discourse around climate change isn’t particularly rosy. Despite numerous policies and activism, the European Union’s Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) reveals that worldwide carbon dioxide emissions rose about 32% over two decades, reaching 39.6 billion tons in 2024 from 30.0 billion tons in 2005.
Emission Patterns:
- China: From 6.2 billion to 13.1 billion tons (+6.9 billion)
- United States: Reduced from 5.9 billion to 4.6 billion tons (-1.3 billion)
- India: Increased from 1.0 billion to 3.2 billion tons (+2.2 billion)
- European Union: Decreased from 3.7 billion* to 2.5 billion tons (-1.2 billion)
- Japan: Reduced from 1.3 billion to 1.0 billion tons (-0.3 billion)
- Others: From 13.9 billion to 15.2 billion tons (+1.3 billion)
*UK emissions stood at 0.56 billion tons in 2005 and 0.29 billion in 2024.
Carbon Efficiency:
In contrast, the world shows a growing trend towards carbon efficiency. The world economy, having nearly doubled its real GDP from $83 trillion to $173 trillion, achieves more with less carbon. Every $1000 of GDP in 2005 resulted in 318 tons of carbon, but by 2024, this has reduced to 229 tons.
Emissions per $1000 GDP:
| Country | 2005 | 2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 759 tons | 391 tons | -48% |
| World | 318 tons | 229 tons | -28% |
| India | 272 tons | 221 tons | -19% |
| US | 334 tons | 180 tons | -46% |
| Japan | 244 tons | 170 tons | -30% |
| EU | 194 tons | 100 tons | -48% |
| UK | 194 tons | 80 tons | -59% |
Some nations, like Iran and South Africa, are less efficient, emitting 556 and 506 tons per $1000, respectively. However, countries like Sweden, Ireland, and Switzerland demonstrate much better efficiency, providing a benchmark for improvement.
A Glimpse of Optimism:
Despite the growth in emissions, the optimist finds solace in growing carbon efficiency and renewable energy’s rise. The UN suggests emissions might drop by 10% by 2035, aided by renewable energy outpacing coal. This projection hints that policy efforts may soon bear fruit, allowing for a scenario where emissions reduce without harming living standards.
FURTHER READING
Explore various resources for a deeper understanding:
- Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research by the EU.
- The UN’s updated report on emissions forecasts and Brazil’s COP30 page.
- John Kemp’s comparisons on energy use and emissions.
About Ed:
Ed Gresser, a noted voice in trade and global markets, serves as Vice President at PPI. With a robust background in trade policy, Ed’s work is recognized for its focus on economic realities and environmental considerations. His extensive career includes significant contributions to both governmental and think-tank endeavors, making him a compelling figure in the intersection of trade and climate.
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