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A Report on the US-China Nuclear War Game Over Taiwan
A recent war game, meticulously orchestrated by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in partnership with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), has brought forth some surprisingly revealing insights. It appears that boosting US nuclear capabilities might not deter China from wielding atomic weapons in a skirmish over Taiwan, as was reported by Taipei Times.
In-depth Findings and Revelations
The intricate exercise, heralded as the first extensive unclassified simulation of a potential nuclear conflict concerning Taiwan, evaluated various scenarios where nuclear weapons could be utilised. Interestingly, the findings, published on Friday, cast doubt on the prevailing push among policy wonks to enhance and modernise the US nuclear stockpile in response to China’s burgeoning military prowess (Taipei Times). The tabletop exercise suggested that the existing US nuclear capabilities, beyond the ongoing modernisation, had a limited bearing on Beijing’s willingness to resort to atomic measures.
Patterns and Pressures
The CSIS informed us through their study that Chinese forces felt the most compelling urge to use nuclear weapons when teetering on the brink of defeat. This suggests a possible shift away from China’s longstanding no-first-use policy, particularly during dire conflicts. Moreover, the researchers surmised that although some scenarios yielded favourable outcomes, "achieving complete victory proved elusive" when nuclear armaments came into play (Taipei Times).
Insights from Previous Simulations
Unlike last year’s CSIS-MIT simulation, where nuclear capabilities were conspicuously absent and the US secured a clear and decisive win, the recent war game exhibited far more intricate and devastating outcomes. Over the course of 15 iterations, Chinese forces withdrew from Taiwan five times, notably with four of these scenarios unfolding sans nuclear weapon usage. In one exceptional iteration, the US employed nuclear arms first only once, as opposed to when the US resorted to nuclear measures after a Chinese initial strike on Taiwanese forces.
Scenarios and Outcomes
Three scenarios ended in mutual devastation, with both the US and China partaking in a nuclear exchange. This nuclear debacle severely damaged cities, with millions expected to suffer casualties. Meanwhile, in five iterations, China secured a position in Taiwan after deploying nuclear weapons, although one scenario concluded without a conclusive result (BBC News).
Strategic Recommendations
In lieu of these findings, the study urged Washington to dwell on diplomatic measures for circumventing nuclear escalation in Taiwan. CSIS senior adviser, Mark Cancian, likened the urgencies to the intricacies faced during the Cuban missile crisis. He advocated for proactive dialogues with allies to discern potential concessions for China. Cancian pointed out, "During the Cuban missile crisis, the US withdrew its nuclear missiles from Turkey to afford Soviet Russia a diplomatic retreat" (MIT News).
Tactical Considerations and Conclusions
Eric Heginbotham, the co-author and an erudite MIT researcher, highlighted a critical insight. The simulation didn’t corroborate suggestions to enlarge the US tactical nuclear cache or commission new delivery systems. One US team, for instance, utilised fewer than 12 tactical nuclear weapons, starkly less when juxtaposed with the more than 600 at their disposal. Moreover, Heginbotham stressed that participants didn’t identify a necessity for additional delivery mechanisms beyond current capabilities.
In conclusion, while the exercise provided a tableau of possibilities, it underscores the inherent complexities and perils surrounding nuclear engagements. Emphasising diplomacy over expansion, it calls for thoughtful preemptive measures, ensuring the oft-chilly diplomacy garners warmth and rationality amidst tactical deliberations (Guardian).
