In recent times, the Russian rouble has broadly strengthened. On Thursday, it hovered near its highest mark against the dollar in over six months. Much of the market stands in anticipation, as Kyiv voiced support for Washington’s proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in the ongoing [Ukraine war](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60506682).
In response, the Kremlin made clear intentions to assess the details from Washington regarding this proposed ceasefire before commenting further. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed optimism, hoping for a resolution in a matter of days.
As of 0824 GMT, the rouble (USDRUB_SPT) appreciated by 0.8%, trading at 86.45 to the dollar in over-the-counter markets. Just two days earlier, it touched 85.1205, the strongest level since August 7, 2024.
The rouble also rose against the Chinese yuan, Russia’s most traded foreign currency, appreciating by 0.4% to reach 11.88. This newfound strength, largely sparked by anticipated improvements in [Moscow-Washington relations](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/30/us/politics/us-russia-relations.html), could influence the central bank’s forthcoming decisions on interest rates.
Anatoly Aksakov, head of the financial committee in Russia’s State Duma, speculated that the central bank might retain its interest rate at 21% at their meeting slated for March 21. Despite prevailing high inflation, the bolstered rouble might compel adjustments on the rate front. Aksakov observed, “The political factor is nudging towards a potential rate reduction.”
Furthermore, Brent crude oil, a key benchmark for Russia’s principal export, saw a 0.4% uptick, settling at $71.22 per barrel. This reinforces the broader economic environment, potentially impacting both the currency and national revenue.
Though the channel of geopolitical developments remains woven with uncertainties, the ongoing discourse signals an intricate interplay between economic indicators and diplomatic maneuvers.
