Published Mon, Jun 16, 2025 · 08:43 PM
In the heart of London, Opec declared on Monday (Jun 16) that they remain quite optimistic about the global economy’s resilience for the latter half of this year. Even with the occasional trade squabble, they’ve only slightly adjusted their expectations for oil supply growth from producers outside the esteemed Opec+ circle come 2026.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries presented their monthly report with an admirable air of constancy. Their forecasts for global oil demand growth in both 2025 and 2026 were maintained after the adjustments they made in April. They seem rather confident that the economic framework remains sturdy, even if trade concerns loom on the horizon.
Now, about the numbers. Supply from those outside the Declaration of Cooperation—Opec+ in simpler terms—is projected to rise by approximately 730,000 barrels per day in 2026. This shows a slight dip of 70,000 bpd from their forecast just last month. It’s a shift, yet not an earth-shattering one.
Opec+ comprises Opec, Russia, and other allies, and lower supply growth from the rest of the world could indeed ease their task of balancing the market. In recent years, the rapid expansion of US shale and other countries’ outputs has been a bit of a dampener on prices. It’s an intriguing dance of balance and rebalancing.
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