Investing in Tesla? You might want to sit this one out, according to a recent note by JPMorgan. They’re keeping an Underweight rating on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and tweaking their price target—not in a direction that Tesla enthusiasts might appreciate. They’ve nudged it up to $130 from a prior $115, but with the stock chilling at $249.02 at Wednesday’s close, that’s quite a drop-off.
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A Wake-Up Call for Tesla Enthusiasts
JPMorgan says, "TSLA shares fell -3.5% Wednesday vs. the flat," blamed partly on lackluster sales and production numbers. Tesla’s 3Q global deliveries were 464,000 units; that’s manageable, right? Not quite. It barely glanced the Bloomberg consensus and spun a little wide of JPMorgan’s own estimates. But here’s the kicker: from their chats with investors, this might have been a bigger "Oh no!" moment than forecasts suggested.
The Great Growth Debate
Cue the suspenseful music; Tesla is staring down the barrel of its first-ever annual decline in unit volumes. Bloomberg reported that Tesla’s position in the market could suffer from this slip-up. JPMorgan’s analysts aren’t poised on optimism about the company’s hypergrowth valuation. "The chance of a full-year unit volume drop? That’s a legit reality check," they mention. If this trend holds, more folks might start questioning Tesla’s growth stock reputation.
They threw some grim numbers into the mix too. Tesla’s anticipated 2024 earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) are projected at $7.3 billion, a humbling plummet from the $28 billion expected a mere two years ago. These numbers, sweetheart, aren’t what stockholders envisioned when Elon Musk was all promises and flair.
Numbers Tell All
Here’s a little spicy detail to chew on: Tesla’s numbers, aside from sales, aren’t winning any popularity contests either. Over two years, there’s been a decline in everything from unit volumes to free cash flow, even if the stock itself has stayed fairly steady. Everyone’s charged up about electric vehicles, but should they be? Maybe pause and read the tea leaves.
- Past 2 Years: TSLA shares remained flat to slightly higher.
- Performance Metrics: Crumbling for unit volumes, revenue, gross margin, and free cash flow.
- Market Realizations: Investors might start rethinking the status of Tesla’s stock.
Conclusion: Off the Pedestal
JPMorgan cautionly points out that if Tesla does decline in its full-year delivery, it might add more pressure rather than clarity. Now’s the time investors could face a quandary. They muse whether this dip is merely a blip or something more revealing.
Is Tesla still the darling it used to be? With New Yorkers watching their wallets this sternly, maybe less so. Investors will soon have to decide if this is an opportunity or a warning call. Let’s just say, there’s nothing like some Wall Street skepticism to give perspective.
