How will the new administration’s policies affect US metros in 2025?

Blog | 28 Jan 2025

A Glimpse into 2025: An Economic Forecast for Major Metro Areas

Barbara Byrne Denham, Senior Economist, Cities & Regions

In the upcoming second Trump administration, various policy proposals are poised to impact the US economy, particularly metro areas, in 2025 and beyond. While the economy might experience mixed effects, we anticipate seeing strong GDP growth in the largest 50 metros entering 2025. However, job growth may falter, primarily due to unfavourable demographic trends and limited health sector opportunities.

Economic Outlook for Metros

The thriving tech sectors in locales like San Jose, Orlando, Seattle, San Francisco, and Austin are expected to spearhead GDP growth. Contrarily, Houston, Detroit, St. Louis, Indianapolis, and Minneapolis may lag. Despite grappling with a rough final quarter in 2024, due to both two hurricanes and the Boeing strike, we foresee a positive trajectory.

Notably, fiscal policies, including the potential extension of tax cuts from 2017, could further enhance consumer spending in the forthcoming year. This fiscal stimulus is a significant contributor to projected GDP increase across half of these metro areas.

Looking towards 2025, construction job growth emerges as a key differentiator. Cities like Austin, San Antonio, Riverside, Dallas, and Charlotte are likely to outpace others in job creation. Conversely, areas such as Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, Washington, and Cincinnati might face challenges in this domain.

About the Author

Barbara Byrne Denham, in her capacity as a senior economist at Oxford Economics, possesses a rich background in analysing metropolitan economies. Her tenure with Oxford Economics involves spearheading reports focusing on the economic landscapes of US cities.

Prior roles at Moody’s Analytics REIS and various commercial real estate firms, including Jones Lang LaSalle, saw Barbara author numerous white papers. Topics such as the Impact of the Tax and Jobs Act on Commercial Real Estate and the Economics of College Towns reflect her expertise. Publications like the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times frequently cite her insights.

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Barbara honed her financial acumen at the University of Notre Dame and is currently pursuing a Ph.D. in Economics at New York University.

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