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Following the announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump in April concerning sweeping tariffs, economic anxieties are on the rise. The world fears a potential slip into recession. Amid the uncertainty, intriguing trends such as the ‘lipstick index’ and ‘longer hemline’ have emerged. Though these trends can be amusing, experts advise they are not to be taken as steadfast indicators.
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Lipstick Index
The term “lipstick index” was dreamt up in 2001 by Leonard Lauder, erstwhile chairman of Estée Lauder. He observed an unexpected rise in lipstick sales during the global recession, whilst consumers tightened their belts. This idea highlights that during financial hardships, people often indulge in small, affordable luxuries.
Mascara Index
Like the lipstick index, the mascara index implies that eye makeup sales spike during hard times. This was notably observed during the Covid-19 pandemic when, with lips masked, eyes took centre stage.
Longer Hemline Theory
In 1926, economist George Taylor proposed a curious theory linking hemline lengths to economic performance. According to his hemline theory, shorter skirts suggest economic prosperity, whereas longer ones hint at downturns.
Recession Hair
Back in 2009, following the stock market crash of 2008, “recession hair” became a term of note. It refers to skipping expensive salon visits. Jump to 2025, and this has morphed into “recession blonde” or “recession brunette,” thanks to TikTok. This trend leans towards affordable, low-maintenance hair colours.
The Rise of Corp Core
An intriguing development in the fashion world is “Corp Core.” This resurgence of corporate wear with sharp tailoring and structured blazers suggests a cultural response to uncertain financial times. As layoffs, inflation, and hiring freezes become commonplace, professionals increasingly opt for styles that convey authority and security.
Nail Polish Index
The nail polish index suggests that during difficult economic periods, people opt for nail polish over splurges. It’s an economical indulgence that provides a tiny sense of luxury without straining the budget.
Men’s Underwear Index
Leonard Lauder also brought us the Men’s Underwear Index. It posits that during economic boom times, men indulge in higher-quality, pricier underwear. Conversely, in recessions, underwear sales, especially those of luxury brands, tend to dip as they turn to more economical choices.
Poll: Do you believe that beauty trends can reliably predict economic downturns?
All these indices are more delightful curiosities than solid economic measures. They capture quirks in consumer behaviour, providing a whimsical lens through which to view our financial world.
— Compiled by Aakanksha Ahire
