A touch of economic growth and some added complexity might initially seem advantageous. Yet, over time, this intricate economic entanglement might signal the need for substantial simplification.
Consider the plight of ordinary citizens. A hefty slice of the world’s income seems to flow towards non-workers and lofty earners. Naturally, everyday folk begin to murmur, “Enough is enough; we need change.” The reverberations of discontent often translate into elections swaying towards politicians driven by warlust or radical overhaul agendas. Less expenditure on healthcare and other sundry complexities subsequently ensue.
Complexity vs. Simplification
This convoluted dance of economies often results in cycles. Fundamentally, these economies thrive on both resources and human involvement. More people typically mean fewer resources per person—be it land or water. In a prize exhibit of ingenuity, economies augment complexities to counter the dwindling resources per capita.
Complexity allows us to extract more over time, albeit with increased costs and spills of pollution. Universities churn out swathes of graduates only to find a junkyard of employment opportunities not matching their academic prowess. Healthcare spends skyrocket, interest on debts swells, clogging economic arteries.
Take the situation of US healthcare. An extravagant player in the grand GDP puzzle, accounting for a stark 17%. Even while straining pockets, the life expectancy results appear distressingly underwhelming. The CIA Factbook positions the US 49th in global life expectancy rankings in 2024.
Shift Towards Simplification
Eventually, the enchantment of complexity faces its threshold. As citizens voice frustration and failings mount, economies tend to fumble into rebellion or governmental collapse. Who could forget the disintegration of the Soviet Union in ’91, fueled by prolonged low oil prices?
On matters international, crude oil scarcity nudges the economies inward. Manufacturing near home becomes a darling thought, with US bringing jobs from abroad, keen to safeguard the globe’s finite oil stash.
The Picture of Limited Resources
With a hearty reckoning, one might draw the conversation towards resources themselves. Oil and coal seem glaringly inadequate per person. Even uranium feels the pinch. The grand stockpile of nuclear warheads, a backup for mined uranium, now dribbles down to scarcity.
Figuratively speaking, one foresees an economy where goods and services diminish, nudging certain energy uses to extinction. Our past tango with Covid-19 hints what cautious cutbacks might look like.
Conversations return often to “The Limits to Growth”. A sobering concept, postulating our modern crunch predicted back in ’72. Recent recalibrations utilize today’s data, rendering ingenious visualisations of change in industrial output, food production, population, and pollution levels.
Foreseeing an Industrial Downturn
The industrial prowess may indeed turn first, per Figure 8. Rising energy costs and limited supplies mean nations might purchase more cheaply from their counterparts.
China, a giant in trade, discerns its own challenges. Its exports swipe high-paying roles from other countries. The US, keen on diversifying its own energy bases, pins nerves against a monopolized Chinese supply chain.
The March Towards Simplification
Simplification may find its path spruced with peculiar events, much like the memorable 2020. Potential scenarios for this march towards simplistic living may surprise:
- [a] Governmental titans like the EU may find funding elusive, perhaps closing shop.
- [b] Programs once under federal wing may flutter away to state’s discretion.
- [c] Global banking calamities could unravel debt bubbles, perhaps pop before our eyes.
- [d] Co-habitation trends may rise, favouring roommate setups.
- [e] Healthcare might pivot to localised, simpler modes.
- [f] Universities may trim down their academic gardens.
- [g] The US suburban lawn mows may succumb to budding gardens, perhaps with livestock.
- [h] International escapades may dwindle, reserved for luxury.
- [i] Local social engagements by foot or cycle may replace automobile forays.
- [j] Politically, the silhouette of strange leaders might eclipse multitudes of representatives.
By Gail Tverberg via Our Finite World
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(Note: Figures mentioned relate to simplified narrative text and are not included in above text.)
