So, picture this: Elliot Dornbusch, a money guy with a cool $22 billion under his belt at CV Advisors, is eyeballing the Strait of Hormuz situation like it could turn into a recipe for economic disaster. He’s playing it safe with his portfolio, steering clear of black swan events like a classic New Yorker dodging puddles after a rainstorm.

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1. Selling calls and buying puts

Dornbusch has a game plan, and it involves options. He’s buying puts, which is Wall Street talk for having a safety net if stocks decide to take a nosedive. His puts on the S&P 500 cover him for a 15% drop. But that’s not all. He’s also selling call options. It’s like renting out your apartment with the option to sell it at a fixed price – he makes a tidy sum in premiums if the market doesn’t hit those heights. He’s skeptical about another year of crazy double-digit gains in the S&P 500, so he’s playing both sides.

Let’s not forget, Dornbusch also holds a long position on the S&P 500, ready to cash in if things soar, but not too much! It’s a push and pull, ensuring he’s got money on both ends of the market spectrum.

2. Investing in medium- and long-duration bonds

Then there’s the bond scene. Dornbusch is buying up medium- and long-term Treasurys and some solid corporate bonds. Now, why would he do that? Because these bonds got higher yields – like a fine New York diner coffee. Right now, 30-year Treasurys are pulling in 4.85%, while corporate bonds are yielding 4.68%. Not bad, right?

This strategy isn’t as risky as it sounds. Sure, rising rates could mean trouble, but Dornbusch believes the bonds won’t rocket higher since they’re still cheap compared to stocks. Plus, any move towards recession would make these bonds more appealing, letting him sell for profit and buy stocks when they’re looking downright gloomy.

And let’s talk global. He’s keeping an eye on Europe and Asia. Markets there might react differently to the Hormuz situation, opening doors for smart moves. “We’ve got optionality,” Dornbusch states, always ready for a real market shakeup, not just minor hiccups.

So, while everyone’s biting their nails, Dornbusch is sipping his metaphorical espresso, ready with a playbook that screams confidence and caution all at once. It’s like watching a master chess player in the chaos of Times Square. You know he’s onto something. Take notes, folks.

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