The Morning Filter: A New York State of Mind

On this week’s episode of The Morning Filter, it’s a short trading week, thanks to the 4th of July. So, naturally, it’s time for Susan Dziubinski and Dave Sekera to cut through the Wall Street chatter. The duo gives you the scoop on which economic report deserves your attention, whether FedEx or Carnival stocks are worth buying post-earnings, and the latest from Novo Nordisk and Amgen on their obesity drugs.

Episode highlights:

• The One Economic Report to Watch This Week
• Are These Stocks in the News Buys?
• Investment Lessons From 2025 So Far
• Stocks to Buy Now and Hold for the Long Term

Now, If you’ve got questions for Dave, drop him a line at themorningfilter@morningstar.com.

On the Radar

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. First things first. The market is a whirlwind these days, but don’t fret. We’ve narrowed it down for you. The nonfarm payroll numbers are out, and you might wonder why they’re crucial. It’s simple. This report is the Fed’s gauge for employment strength. It’s like the Fed’s personal weathervane.

But remember, the market isn’t a one-trick pony. It’s the trend that matters, so don’t jump at any single report.

Economic Insights and Market Whispers

Now, Dave, our Chief US Market Strategist, has a bead on the market like a cabbie has on NYC traffic. Futures are looking rosy, but let’s keep a skeptical eye. There’s some positive momentum with geopolitical tensions easing—oil prices are mellowing out. Yet, trade negotiations might throw us for a loop soon. Keep an eye out for the trade pause deadline on July 9, folks!

Stocks: To Buy or Not to Buy?

Now onto the hot stocks. FedEx’s earnings didn’t exactly wow anyone. It’s a so-so play right now, sitting cozy in 3-star territory. Carnival, on the other hand, had Wall Street buzzing. With bookings soaring and potential debt upgrades on the horizon, Carnival appears to have favorable winds. But think twice—every market’s got its storms.

Pour a Little Obsession on Novo and Amgen

News from Novo Nordisk and Amgen rocked the boat a bit—no surprise there. Novo’s shifting gears in their Hims partnership and tweaking their obesity drug forecasts. Meanwhile, Amgen’s struggling with tolerability in its obesity trials. Sure, there’s potential here, but be wary and do your research.

BlackRock at the Crossroads

A viewer asked for a deep dive on BlackRock. Dave got you covered. This financial powerhouse is sitting smack dab on its fair value. Even though it’s a top pick among asset managers, for now, it’s a watchlist candidate until the price looks more attractive.

Lessons from the 2025 Rollercoaster

2025’s been a ride. Uncertainty is like the friend that never leaves. From AI stocks dropping like a lead balloon to geopolitical tensions flaring up, it’s been an eventful half-year. The market ebbs and flows, and your portfolio strategy needs to do the same. Adjust your sails, be prepared for drawdowns, and never lose sight of your investment goals.

Stock Picks to Sink Your Teeth Into

Here’s for the stock buffs. Dave suggests keeping an eye on a mixed bag of opportunities:

Dividend Darlings

• Healthpeak Properties: A REIT with a juicy 7% yield.
• Energy Transfer: MLP with a 7.2% dividend.

AI Contenders

• Salesforce: Leveraging AI for growth; a buying opportunity as it trades at a 16% discount.
• Taiwan Semiconductor: Still undervalued but remember, patience is key.

Energy Giants

• Exxon Mobil: Provides a natural hedge in your portfolio.
• H.F. Sinclair: A higher-risk refinery play with potential turnaround prospects.

Stay Connected

We’re halfway through 2025, believe it or not, and there’s more in store. Dave and Morningstar economist Preston Caldwell will be diving deep during their Mid-Year 2025 Stock Market Outlook webinar. Register to not miss a beat!

And that’s the lowdown. Keep your portfolios self-assured and don’t let market jitters knock you off course. For more stock musings and strategic advice, surf over to Morningstar for all the details. Before we sign off, a tip of the hat to the freedom we celebrate this week and the savvy investing it enables. Happy Fourth of July, folks!

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