As we inch closer to 2026, uncertainty seems to define global affairs. Unlike in earlier times, this unpredictability isn’t just about economic ups and downs or political skirmishes. Rather, it’s a mix of technological upheaval, shifting geopolitical alliances, and surprise crises that are reshaping our world.
Now, two paramount uncertainties are expected to steer the next wave of global events. Firstly, the geopolitical landscape remains volatile and could further unravel. Eastern Europe’s tension, with the war in Ukraine, still captivates global focus. Yet, instability stretches beyond these borders. In the Middle East, lingering impacts from the October 7, 2023, Israel-Hamas conflict continue to stir the pot. Furthermore, the erratic behaviour of nuclear-armed states such as North Korea adds to the risks. Fragile states across Africa and Asia face similar turmoil.
The second major uncertainty pertains to the trajectory of global economic growth. Post the COVID-19 shock, the world embarked on a fragile recovery. Innovation, especially in artificial intelligence (AI), spearheaded this recovery. AI is reshaping productivity and labour markets. However, a tech-driven growth model has its pitfalls. Market bubbles and unequal wealth creation are risks. Whether AI-led growth can weather geopolitical storms remains a question.
Considering these uncertainties, one can envisage four broad scenarios for the world after 2025. The “resilient world” scenario sees economic growth amid geopolitical challenges. Next, “peace and prosperity” envisions robust growth paired with reduced geopolitical tensions. A third possibility, “world stagnates,” suggests a slowdown in economic activity but with reduced geopolitical pressures. Lastly, the “time of troubles” scenario predicts a simultaneous economic downturn with rising geopolitical chaos.
Looking at the more optimistic “resilient world,” it reflects hope tinged with caution. Growth, although uneven, is propelled by nations like India and select Asian markets. Their strength lies in technological investments and favourable demographics. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has urged countries to strengthen domestic economic resilience source. Yet, disparities between advanced and emerging economies may spark social tensions.
AI’s role in this growth is pivotal. Research indicates up to 40% of recent US GDP growth ties back to AI investments. While this buoyed low-growth periods since the 1960s, the tech-centric bubble risk looms large. There’s concern that over-reliance on AI might lead to economic shocks following market corrections. On the globalisation front, McKinsey notes a 70% plunge in Western investments in China since 2022. This trend highlights both geopolitical tension and strategic shifts source.
Conversely, the “time of troubles” scenario is quite foreboding. It draws parallels with Russia’s historical “Time of Troubles” (1584–1613). A precarious mix of escalating regional conflicts, fragile international institutions, and tech economy downturns could usher in such an era. The US, heavily reliant on AI, may encounter acute crises impacting both domestic and international power.
Adding to this is global indebtedness. The IMF projects global debt could average near 100% of GDP by decade’s end. In such a setting, governments may lack fiscal tools to combat major downturns. This amplifies vulnerabilities, potentially breeding protectionism and competitive trade policies source.
Regional conflicts, particularly those in Ukraine and the Middle East, could escalate amid global strain. Domestic economic woes might restrict great powers from containing these conflicts. This risk of local disputes snowballing into global crises is substantial.
Despite such challenges, there’s room for opportunity. AI and technology can offer new conflict management tools and improve global governance. Emerging economies, leveraging innovation, might sustain growth amidst geopolitical tension.
The imperative for the next decade is clear: strategic foresight and adaptability. Policymakers must brace for potential disruptions—from financial shocks to regional wars. Businesses must anticipate uneven growth and market volatility tied to technological change. Citizens will need to navigate an era teeming with both prospects and risks.
In conclusion, the post-pandemic era is not merely a replay of old trends but a transformative phase marked by tech promise and geopolitical fragility. Our responses to these challenges will shape whether the decade is remembered for resilience or chaos. The call to action is stark: anticipate the unexpected, build resilience, and engage with complexity.
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M A Hossain, a valued contributor to Blitz, often shares his insights on global politics and defence.
